The First Warning Shot

80% of their revenue—gone in months. Not years. Months. Last week, Tailwind CSS laid off 75% of their engineering team. People are calling it the first true casualty of AI. They’re wrong, it’s not the first. But it is the first one we can’t explain away with “restructuring” or “market conditions.” This is a warning shot. And if you’re not asking hard questions about your own business model right now, you’re already behind. ...

January 9, 2026

833x: The New Economics of Intelligence

What does a human knowledge worker actually cost per token? I ran the math, and the answer stopped me cold: $8,333 per million tokens. Here’s how that breaks down. The average knowledge worker processes about 36,000 words per day—emails, meetings, documents, Slack messages. Convert that to tokens (the unit AI models use), and you get roughly 48,000 tokens daily. At a $100,000 salary across 250 working days, that’s $400 per day of human cognition. Divide by those 48,000 tokens, scale it up, and you land at $8,333 per million tokens. ...

January 3, 2026

Refining the 2026 Startup Thesis

Greg Isenberg’s viral thread on “20 Mega Shifts” that make 2026 the best time to build a startup captures something real about this moment. But a few points deserve some pushback or refinement. On Social Distribution The point about “FYP-ified” social is about not needing to grow a following first. You can write a couple quality posts and get seen way more than the old follower-only view allowed. That’s genuinely democratizing for creators starting from zero. The smart play is converting that rented algorithmic reach into owned channels—email, SMS, community. Creator Governed Content is needed to start to put the power back in the hands of the creator. ...

January 2, 2026

Yearly Theme 2026

Yearly resolutions are designed for you to fail. Yearly THEMES are designed for you to succeed. “When trying to build yourself into a better version of you, exact data points don’t matter. All that matters is the trend line.” - CGP Grey I’ve been implementing themes instead of resolutions for over three years now. Themes are that constant reminder about the direction that you want to grow, rather than rigid criteria. 2024 was “Manufacture Opportunities.” 2025 was “High Agency.” For 2026, the theme is Scale Your Compute. ...

December 29, 2025

File Over App

What is File Over App? File over app is a philosophy: if you want to create digital artifacts that last, they must be files you can control, in formats that are easy to retrieve and read. Use tools that give you this freedom. Why is it important? Applications come and go. Formats change. The bulk of our digital lives has only existed for a few decades and in that short time hundereds of companies have come and gone. ...

February 10, 2025