Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock
Read or use AI analysis. Use AI if you are looking for a step by step / how to guide for becoming a superforecaster. Read if you are looking to get the background on the largest results based prediction study with some process and tips thrown in. Project Background In 2005 Philip Tetlock published a book called “Expert Political Judgement” where his main thesis can be boiled down to “Most expert predictions turn out to be no more accurate than a chimpanzee throwing a dart at a dart board.” It gets even more damning when his data showed that there is a direct correlation between how famous an expert was and how often they were wrong. Said differently, the more famous an expert was, the more likely they were to be wrong. ...